Thursday, January 3, 2013

2013 Smart Guide: Arctic melt will spark weird weather

Read more: "2013 Smart Guide: 10 ideas that will shape the year"

Melting, rather than warming, is likely to be the big climate issue of 2013.

Predictions that a major El Ni?o warming event - and the coming solar maximum - would help make next year the warmest on record now seem wide of the mark. All eyes will probably be on the Arctic instead. Some say the record loss of sea ice in summer 2012 was a one-off, others that it was the start of a runaway collapse. If the latter, summer sea ice could virtually disappear as early as 2016. What is certain is that the ice reforming now will be the thinnest on record, priming it for destruction next summer.

A new record melt would allow scary satellite images of an even bluer Arctic to coincide with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's next assessment, due in September (though a draft has been leaked - see "What leaked IPCC report really says on climate change"). Such pictures will be a sombre backdrop as the IPCC raises its previously cautious estimates of future polar melting and the speed of sea-level rise.

With warming of at least 2 ?C now unstoppable, politicians at the recent Doha climate talks spent much time discussing how to adapt. What they need is predictions for individual countries. But the IPCC will admit that it still cannot say whether many regions will get wetter or drier. And it will quietly bury its confident predictions, made in 2007, of more frequent droughts, which turned out to rest largely on flawed analyses.

There is growing uncertainty, too, about the outlook for the northern hemisphere. Research in 2012 implicated the fast-warming Arctic in a slowing of the jet stream. This is bringing extreme weather to mid-latitudes, including prolonged cold spells in Europe, Russia's 2010 heatwave, and record droughts in the US in 2011 and 2012. Watch out for more weird weather in 2013.

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Wednesday, January 2, 2013

House eats the dog food (Powerlineblog)

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Here?s the deal (Powerlineblog)

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Concern over Oscar voting extends deadline

LOS ANGELES (AP) ? Growing concern that problems with the new electronic Oscar voting system could lead to record-low turnout has prompted the motion picture academy to extend the deadline for members to vote for Oscar nominations.

But with next week's highly anticipated announcements looming, the extension is only for a day, until Friday. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences said Monday any votes received after the new deadline will not be counted.

"By extending the voting deadline we are providing every opportunity available to make the transition to online balloting as smooth as possible," said the academy's chief operating officer, Ric Robertson, in a statement. "We're grateful to our global membership for joining us in this process."

Reports of difficulty accessing the Oscars' first-ever online voting system and fears that it could be hacked have raised questions about balloting for the 85th annual contest. Earlier this year, the academy and its longtime accountants, PricewaterhouseCoopers, partnered with the electronic voting firm Everyone Counts Inc. to develop the system.

"There's considerable concern from many members that voter participation will be at record lows this year because the people who wanted to take a chance on this new cutting-edge system are either giving up on it or worried they won't be able to cast their votes," said Scott Feinberg, awards analyst and blogger for The Hollywood Reporter.

In the past, Oscar voting has been compiled strictly through paper ballots sent through the mail. The new system allows members to choose between voting online or sticking with a traditional mail-in ballot.

Morgan Spurlock, the documentary filmmaker whose 2004 film "Super Size Me" was nominated for best documentary, posted on Twitter last week that he wasn't able to log on to vote electronically and his ballot was instead mailed to him.

"The password they sent didn't work for my log-in ? and they couldn't email me a new log-in, only snail mail," tweeted the 42-year-old director.

The academy said it has made several voting resources available to members, including assisted voting stations in Los Angeles, New York and London, and a 24-hour support line.

A spokesman for Everyone Counts didn't immediately respond to a request seeking comment.

Besides online voting, a retooled nomination period could also affect the competition.

Organizers moved up the unveiling of the Oscar nominations to Jan. 10. That change puts the announcement three days before Hollywood's second-biggest awards ceremony, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association's Golden Globes, which are scheduled for Jan. 13.

Oscar overseers originally said the switcheroo would give the academy's nearly 6,000 members more time to see nominated films before the Feb. 24 awards ceremony, but Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter noted that the change gave voters less time to see potential contenders during the first phase of voting, when members decide on nominees.

"If the turnout is lower among older members, more traditional Oscar contenders will probably receive fewer votes, and otherwise edgier films that appeal more to younger people could fare better," said Feinberg. "Because of the way that best-picture voting works, it could increase the chances of a movie like 'The Master' or 'Moonrise Kingdom' getting in."

Ultimately, because of the inherent secrecy involved in selecting Oscar winners, Feinberg said it will be impossible to know what effects ? if any ? this year's voting changes have on the ceremony, where as many as 10 films could be vying for the best-picture award.

___

Online:

http://www.oscars.org

___

Follow AP Entertainment Writer Derrik J. Lang on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/derrikjlang.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/concern-over-oscar-voting-extends-deadline-060911706.html

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Tuesday, January 1, 2013

U.S., Europe hope the new year brings better times

NEW YORK (AP) ? From the glittering New Year's ball dropping in Times Square to joyous fireworks in London and cheers in a once-isolated Asian country, the world did its best to ring in 2013 with hope for renewal after a year of economic uncertainty, searing violence and natural disasters.

"With all the sadness in the country, we're looking for some good changes in 2013," Laura Concannon, of Hingham, Mass., said as she, her husband, Kevin, and his parents joined hundreds of thousands of revelers lined up for blocks through bustling Times Square on Monday.

Yvonne Gomez, 53, a physician from Grand Forks, N.D., glowed as she and her husband, 63-year-old potato farmer Gregg Halverson, took in the festivities in New York.

"I couldn't begin the new year in a more beautiful way," she said. "I married him two weeks ago and here we are in the middle of Times Square celebrating the new year ? two widowers who found each other."

Revelers with New Year's hats and sunglasses boasting "2013" packed the streets in the 35-degree cold to count down the first ball drop in decades without Dick Clark, who died in April and was honored with his name printed on pieces of confetti and on one of the crystal panels on the Times Square ball.

Matias Dellanno, 37, of Buenos Aires, Argentina, stood in the middle of the square with his wife and 3-year-old son, beaming with joy as his eyes caught the multicolored lighting illuminating the square just before midnight.

"I feel a completely new hope for 2013," he said. "It can't be any worse than last year, when my business lost clients. It was a rough year for everyone. The new year has to be better!"

Security in Times Square was tight, with a mass of uniformed police and plainclothes officers assigned to blend into the crowd. With police Commissioner Raymond Kelly proclaiming that Times Square would be the "safest place in the world on New Year's Eve," officers used barriers to prevent overcrowding and checkpoints to inspect vehicles, enforce a ban on alcohol and check handbags.

Syracuse University student Taylor Nanz, 18, said she and a friend had been standing in Times Square since 1:20 p.m. Monday. They hadn't moved from their spot because "if you leave, you lose your place," she said, shivering behind an iron barricade with a clear view of One Times Square, the building where the crystal ball hovered.

"It's the first time - and the last time," she said.

Celebrations also were held around the country, from the family-oriented, alcohol-free first night event in Scranton, Pa., to expensive private parties and sold-out musical acts in Las Vegas, featuring Beyonce, the Red Hot Chili Peppers and the Black Keys.

Elsewhere, lavish fireworks displays lit up skylines in Sydney, Hong Kong and Shanghai. In the United Arab Emirates city of Dubai, multicolored fireworks danced early Tuesday up and down the world's tallest building, the Burj Khalifa.

In Rome, Pope Benedict XVI celebrated New Year's Eve with a vespers service in St. Peter's Basilica to give thanks for 2012 and look ahead to 2013. He said that despite all the death and injustice in the world, goodness prevails.

In Russia, spectators filled Moscow's iconic Red Square as fireworks exploded near the Kremlin. In Rio de Janeiro, revelers dressed head-to-toe in white as dictated by Brazilian new years' tradition flooded onto Copacabana beach for a concert.

Organizers said about 90,000 people gathered in a large field Yangon, Myanmar, for their first chance to do what much of the world does every Dec. 31 - watch a countdown. The reformist government that took office in 2011 in the country, long under military rule, threw its first public New Year's celebration in decades.

"We feel like we are in a different world," said Yu Thawda, a university student who went with three of her friends.

Parts of Europe held scaled-back festivities and street parties, the mood a bit restrained - if hopeful - for a 2013 that is projected to be a sixth straight year of recession amid Greece's worst economic crisis since World War II.

London, the often soggy British capital, was dry and clear, as the familiar chimes of the clock inside the Big Ben tower counted down the final seconds of 2012 and a dazzling display of fireworks lit the skies above Parliament Square. People cheered as the landmarks were bathed in the light of the display, which included streamers shot out of the London Eye wheel and blazing rockets launched from the banks of the River Thames.

Elsewhere, the atmosphere of celebration was muted with concern.

Hotels, clubs and other sites in New Delhi, the Indian capital, canceled festivities after the death of a rape victim on Saturday touched off days of mourning and reflection about women's safety.

In Times Square, some revelers checked their cellphones to keep up with news of lawmakers' tentative deal to skirt the fiscal cliff combination of expiring tax cuts and across-the-board spending cuts that threatened to reverberate globally. And the elementary school massacre in Newtown, Conn., and Superstorm Sandy mingled into the memories of 2012.

"This has been a very eventful year, on many levels," Denise Norris said as she and her husband, the Rev. Urie Norris, surveyed the crowd jamming Times Square for the countdown show with Ryan Seacrest as host.

Seacrest remembered Clark and his legacy, saying it was one that would be continued, and that Clark himself had told him, "Seacrest, the show must go on."

Elvis Rivera, of Manhattan, was taking photos in Times Square to capture the moment. He wasn't planning to ring in the new year there but went by to take pictures.

How did he feel about the end of 2012?

"Relieved," Rivera said, adding that there had been a death and job losses in his family this year.

___

Associated Press writers Colleen Long in New York; Aye Aye Win in Yangon, Myanmar; Silvia Hui in London, and Ashok Sharma in New Delhi contributed to this report.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/us-europe-hope-brings-better-times-230903344.html

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Assad's forces push to retake Damascus suburb

AMMAN (Reuters) - Heavy fighting raged on the outskirts of Damascus on Monday as elite troops backed by tanks tried to recapture a strategic suburb from rebels in one of the largest military operations in that district in months, opposition activists said.

Five people, including one child, died from army rocket fire that hit Daraya, the activists said. Daraya is one of a series of interconnected Sunni Muslim suburbs that ring Syria's capital and have been at the forefront of the 21-month-old revolt against President Bashar al-Assad.

"This is the biggest attack on Daraya in two months. An armored column is trying to advance but it being held (back) by the Free Syrian Army," said Abu Kinan, an opposition activist in the area, referring to a rebel group.

He said that tens of thousands of civilians had fled Daraya during weeks of government assault but that 5,000 remained, along with hundreds of rebels. Daraya is located near the main southern highway leading to the Jordanian border 85 kms (50 miles) to the south.

Activists said the military is trying to push back rebels who have been slowly advancing from the outskirts of Damascus to within striking distance of central districts inhabited by Assad's Alawite minority sect.

Assad's forces have mostly relied on aerial and artillery bombardment, rather than infantry. Rebels have been able take several outlying towns and have clashed with government troops near Damascus International Airport, halting flights by foreign airlines.

Another activist in Damascus with connection to rebels, who did not want to be named, said Daraya has been a firing position for rebels using mortars and homemade rockets. From it, they have been able to hit a huge presidential complex located at a hilltop overlooking Damascus and target pro-Assad shabbiha militia in an Alawite enclave nearby known as Mezze 86.

"So far they have missed the palace but they are getting better. I think the regime has realized that it no longer can afford to have such a threat so close by, but it has failed to overrun Daraya before," he said.

(Reporting by Khaled Yacoub Oweis; Editing by Oliver Holmes and Peter Graff)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/assads-forces-push-retake-damascus-suburb-115147854.html

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In Internet Promotion, You Have To Work Smarter, Not Harder | Cop ...

Sometimes, an idea for a business comes to mind. Thankfully, the internet does offer that. With your ideas, you can turn it into a money making enterprise, and with good marketing, you can becomes very successful. The tips presented below can help you get off to a great start in the field of Internet marketing.

TIP! If you regularly email current or potential customers, ensure that you change the links that you place in the emails once in a while. The link blocks that stay the same in each email are generally ignored.

Words like ?limited? add a sense of urgency and uniqueness to your advertisement. Many people turn to online retailers because they feel local stores have nothing new or fresh to offer. They want to have something that everyone else doesn?t. If you sell a limited edition of something, they will want to buy it to be different, and understand they have to buy it quickly before it runs out.

Most often you will be advised not to mix business with your home life, but this may qualify as an exception. That is because there is no high pressure, and it can almost be viewed as a type of lucrative hobby. Think about doing it with a spouse.

TIP! Viral videos can be an enormous help for generating traffic. Creating a viral video takes innovation and lots of luck.

Try offering different versions of your site to people all over the world. Create as many possible versions of your website as you can, offering a variety of different languages. This is a proven technique for drawing in more global customers. If people are able to read your content in their own language, it?s much more likely that they?ll purchase something from you.

Use the signature line in forums and email to promote your business. Include it at the bottom of every message board or forum posting, for example. Every email you send out should have a link to your site within your signature. This is a way to subtly advertise your website and could increase your ratings in search engines too. Create an enticing line that encourages readers to click and put it near the link.

TIP! You must have a truly fine website to have Internet marketing success. Check frequently for broken links, outdated information and any other problems that could detract from the message and product you are presenting.

Use high resolution images to showcase your products on your website. Your customers need to be able to visualize the items they are about to buy, and see the detail of your high-quality products. Create an area on your web site where buyers can submit their photographs of your product. Another effective use of photography is to show how customers changed as a result of using your product.

Try to be thorough when designing your website by having a relevant and content oriented site. Give knowledge to your customers in a short time, so they are informed prior to purchasing a product. Avoid being redundant and be certain that your information is current and up to date.

TIP! Always address complaints from customers personally. You might want to use outsourcing for your business needs, but this could cause customers to become even more dissatisfied.

Create a game that your customers can play. Free games are a great way to attract visitors, as people are always looking for something fun and free to do online. Use the game to subtly advertise your products for services. For example, a great game idea for a hair-product site would be a hairstyling game that features options to buy your products.

TIP! AJAX and Flash should be used very little. This kind of content can be great if you want an original website, but search engines will not be able to interpret any of it.

Incorporate Twitter, Facebook and other social media outlets into your online marketing efforts. These social media websites give you the perfect way to keep in contact with your customers. They are perfect for promotions, updates and even deeper conversations. Although, it is always best to manage how you interact with the customers because you don?t want to always be advertising something in all your comments. Rather, you should offer informative insights into your products and business while slipping in an occasional marketing message.

As you can see from the above article, the end goal for all businesses should be longevity. Whether your business size is large or small, continued success comes from an effective marketing strategy. Every business starts at the bottom, so implement these tips to increase business today.

Source: http://www.cop15post.com/in-internet-promotion-you-have-to-work-smarter-not-harder.html

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